{"id":12815,"date":"2021-08-10T09:05:00","date_gmt":"2021-08-10T09:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/?p=12815"},"modified":"2021-08-16T09:17:10","modified_gmt":"2021-08-16T09:17:10","slug":"fracaso-y-panico-en-afganistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/fracaso-y-panico-en-afganistan\/","title":{"rendered":"Fracaso y p\u00e1nico en Afganist\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Afganos varados en Cham\u00e1n, en la frontera de Pakist\u00e1n y Afganist\u00e1n, esperan para cruzar este viernes.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Para El Pa\u00eds<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si se mira hacia atr\u00e1s, cuando el avance talib\u00e1n <\/a>parece ahora mismo imparable, la sensaci\u00f3n de fracaso se impone a cualquier otra. Fracaso, en primer lugar, de Washington, que ni ha logrado democratizar el pa\u00eds (Bush dixit) ni tampoco estabilizarlo (Obama dixit). En el terreno pol\u00edtico, y a pesar de forzar las reglas de juego de todas las maneras posibles, no ha conseguido asentar un Gobierno suficientemente leg\u00edtimo<\/a> y representativo. Y en el militar nada puede disimular la amarga sensaci\u00f3n de derrota de unas fuerzas que no han podido acabar con Al Qaeda, objetivo principal de su invasi\u00f3n en octubre de 2001, a pesar de su abrumadora superioridad num\u00e9rica y tecnol\u00f3gica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un fracaso<\/a> que cabe aplicar, asimismo, al resto de aliados estadounidenses (Espa\u00f1a incluida) y, sobre todo, al Gobierno afgano, liderado primero por Hamid Karzai y ahora por el inoperante t\u00e1ndem Ghani-Abdullah. Cualquiera de las mejoras puntuales que hayan podido introducir estos palidece ante el tenebroso panorama de un pa\u00eds empobrecido y violentado sistem\u00e1ticamente como resultado del sectarismo, la corrupci\u00f3n y la incompetencia de las autoridades locales. Y aunque solo cabe suponer que con el auge talib\u00e1n la inmensa mayor\u00eda de los casi 40 millones de afganos van a salir perdiendo a\u00fan m\u00e1s, ser\u00eda err\u00f3neo pensar que, tras 20 a\u00f1os de ayuda externa, se hab\u00eda llegado ya a un punto en el que las necesidades b\u00e1sicas estuvieran cubiertas, la seguridad f\u00edsica estuviera garantizada o fuera posible ejercer plenamente los derechos y libertades m\u00e1s elementales. A eso se a\u00f1ade que las fuerzas armadas y de seguridad afganas nunca han logrado ostentar el monopolio leg\u00edtimo de la fuerza, impotentes ante el desaf\u00edo que les han planteado simult\u00e1neamente actores armados de todo signo y vecinos interesados en inmiscuirse permanentemente en sus asuntos internos, con Pakist\u00e1n a la cabeza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A partir de ah\u00ed, si se mira hacia adelante desde una \u00f3ptica estrictamente realista, la sensaci\u00f3n dominante es la de p\u00e1nico, apenas disimulado. Los talibanes no detendr\u00e1n su avance hasta contar con una posici\u00f3n de fuerza que les permita tomar directamente el poder o, como m\u00ednimo, imponer sus condiciones a un Gobierno incapaz de reaccionar. Cuentan para ello con su propia determinaci\u00f3n de instalarse en Kabul para gestionar el pa\u00eds aplicando su estricta visi\u00f3n del islam, as\u00ed como con la creciente desafecci\u00f3n ciudadana con unos gobernantes tan impopulares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adem\u00e1s, calculan que, si no hacen algo que afecte a los intereses vitales de las grandes potencias (volver a golpear en Europa o EE UU; acoger o apoyar a los uigures; aliarse abiertamente con Al Qaeda o el ISIS) ninguna de ellas querr\u00e1 pasar por el mismo calvario de tratar de imponer su dictado en Afganist\u00e1n. En paralelo, el vecino m\u00e1s interesado vitalmente en guiar sus futuros pasos, Pakist\u00e1n, no ser\u00e1 precisamente quien vaya a cortarles el paso hacia Kabul. Por supuesto, los perdedores netos de esta deriva ser\u00e1n, como siempre, los afganos. Pero \u00bfcu\u00e1ndo ha importado realmente su suerte?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Para El Pa\u00eds. Si se mira hacia atr\u00e1s, cuando el avance talib\u00e1n parece ahora mismo imparable, la sensaci\u00f3n …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":194,"featured_media":12818,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[182,140],"tags":[196],"iecah_area":[],"iecah_language":[387],"class_list":["post-12815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","category-articulos","tag-construccion-de-paz-cp","iecah_language-espanol"],"yoast_head":"\nFracaso y p\u00e1nico en Afganist\u00e1n - IECAH<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/fracaso-y-panico-en-afganistan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fracaso y p\u00e1nico en Afganist\u00e1n - IECAH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Para El Pa\u00eds. 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