{"id":6046,"date":"2012-04-10T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-04-10T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/?p=6046"},"modified":"2021-08-04T12:10:54","modified_gmt":"2021-08-04T12:10:54","slug":"siria-iy-ahora-que","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/siria-iy-ahora-que\/","title":{"rendered":"Siria, \u00bfy ahora qu\u00e9?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"assadposter\"<\/p>\n

(Para Radio Nederland)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Como desafortunadamente cab\u00eda prever, el r\u00e9gimen sirio ha decidido incumplir el plan de paz que Kofi Annan, en nombre de la ONU y de la Liga \u00c1rabe, sosten\u00eda que hab\u00eda logrado acordar.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

(Para Radio Nederland)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Como desafortunadamente cab\u00eda prever, el r\u00e9gimen sirio ha decidido incumplir el plan de paz que Kofi Annan, en nombre de la ONU y de la Liga \u00c1rabe, sosten\u00eda que hab\u00eda logrado acordar.<\/a><\/p>\n

Dicho plan estipulaba que el d\u00eda 10 de abril ten\u00eda que producirse la retirada militar de las calles de las localidades sirias, castigadas sistem\u00e1ticamente durante las \u00faltimas semanas, y el d\u00eda 12 deber\u00eda producirse un total cese de las hostilidades. Mientras esto se escribe, resulta palmario que el presidente sirio, Bachar el Asad, y sus leales est\u00e1n decididos a seguir matando con el objetivo central de conservar sus posiciones de poder. \u00bfY ahora qu\u00e9?<\/p>\n

Sin descartar cambios de rumbo sorpresivos por parte de la multiplicidad de actores involucrados en un conflicto que ya ha superado el a\u00f1o de duraci\u00f3n, y que ha costado la vida al menos a 9.000 personas, hay cosas que podemos considerar que no se van a producir.<\/p>\n

Sin intervenci\u00f3n militar internacional<\/strong>
La primera de ellas, y eso es fundamental en los c\u00e1lculos del gobierno sirio, es que sigue siendo descartable una posible intervenci\u00f3n militar internacional. Al margen del debate abierto sobre si \u00e9ste ser\u00eda el m\u00e9todo m\u00e1s adecuado para resolver el problema- y parece claro que el coste es mucho mayor que el posible beneficio-, el simple hecho de que no se contemple ni siquiera como una opci\u00f3n, otorga una ventaja definitiva a un r\u00e9gimen que, aunque se sabe presionado, cuenta con una c\u00f3moda superioridad militar contra sus oponentes.<\/p>\n

A partir de esa hip\u00f3tesis, y en tanto nada apunta a un pr\u00f3ximo colapso interno del clan gobernante, el gui\u00f3n m\u00e1s previsible pasa por que contin\u00fae el flujo de refugiados que llegan a Turqu\u00eda tratando de escapar de la violencia (unos 30.000 en la actualidad). Tambi\u00e9n lo es que Annan siga viajando entre las distintas capitales implicadas en este tortuoso juego, consciente de que mientras Mosc\u00fa y Teher\u00e1n no cuestionen su apoyo al presidente sirio, ser\u00e1 imposible incrementar la presi\u00f3n internacional para que acepte finalmente modificar su estrategia de fuerza.<\/p>\n

Oposici\u00f3n sin uni\u00f3n<\/strong>
Mientras tanto, los opositores seguir\u00e1n mostrando una imposibilidad total de unificar sus fuerzas, en una nueva concesi\u00f3n a un r\u00e9gimen que dicen detestar, pero frente al que no logran articular una estrategia com\u00fan. Tampoco parece ser m\u00e1s optimista la imagen que transmiten los grupos de rebeldes que han tomado las armas contra las fuerzas del r\u00e9gimen. Sostienen ahora que, ante el incumplimiento gubernamental del plan de paz, est\u00e1n dispuestos a pasar a la ofensiva. Para que esto sea algo m\u00e1s que una frase hueca, es necesario que logren como m\u00ednimo coordinar sus acciones, algo que no parece al alcance del Ej\u00e9rcito Libre de Siria. Es bien sabido que no ha logrado coordinar a los m\u00faltiples comit\u00e9s locales de resistencia (ni, mucho menos, subordinarlos a su autoridad), ni tampoco dispone de armas suficientes para enfrentarse a las fuerzas armadas, a las shabiha y a unos servicios de inteligencia que durante a\u00f1os han sabido infiltrarse en todos los \u00e1mbitos de la vida nacional para abortar cualquier contestaci\u00f3n al poder establecido.<\/a><\/p>\n

El Asad: ganar tiempo<\/strong>
Por su parte, Bachar el Asad, sinti\u00e9ndose sobradamente capacitado para seguir eliminando a quienes se opongan a sus dictados, procurar\u00e1 seguir jugando con sus interlocutores internacionales con la simple intenci\u00f3n de ganar tiempo. Su objetivo inmediato es llegar pol\u00edticamente vivo a las elecciones parlamentarias del pr\u00f3ximo 7 de mayo. De ese modo entiende que lograr\u00e1 desactivar a una parte significativa de sus opositores- en la medida en que algunos de ellos caer\u00e1n en la tentaci\u00f3n de entrar en un juego pol\u00edtico que se anuncia formalmente como multipartidista- y dar\u00e1 nuevos argumentos para que sus defensores externos (Mosc\u00fa y Teher\u00e1n nuevamente) puedan aducir que la reforma ya est\u00e1 definitivamente en marcha y que es preciso dejar tiempo a el Asad para que la actual crisis se solucione. Si nada cambia esta din\u00e1mica, resultar\u00e1 que el r\u00e9gimen empezar\u00e1 a pensar, en contra de la opini\u00f3n generalizada, que incluso el tiempo corre a su favor.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"reproductor_rn\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
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<\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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