{"id":6317,"date":"2012-08-27T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-08-27T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/?p=6317"},"modified":"2021-07-30T11:14:33","modified_gmt":"2021-07-30T11:14:33","slug":"el-modelo-yemeni-no-sirve-en-siria-sp-195038215","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/el-modelo-yemeni-no-sirve-en-siria-sp-195038215\/","title":{"rendered":"El modelo yemen\u00ed no sirve en Siria"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

(Para El Pa\u00eds)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yemen est\u00e1 m\u00e1s cerca de un Estado fallido que de uno democr\u00e1tico.<\/p>\n

La oposici\u00f3n siria est\u00e1 todav\u00eda hoy marcada por la fragmentaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

(Para El Pa\u00eds<\/a>)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yemen est\u00e1 m\u00e1s cerca de un Estado fallido que de uno democr\u00e1tico<\/p>\n

La oposici\u00f3n siria est\u00e1 todav\u00eda hoy marcada por la fragmentaci\u00f3n<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dieciocho meses despu\u00e9s del estallido sirio parece imponerse un comportamiento generalizado que se limita, por un lado, a contabilizar los muertos en un frente de batalla que se ampl\u00eda progresivamente hacia L\u00edbano e Irak y, por otro, a testificar la falta de voluntad de la comunidad internacional para actuar m\u00e1s contundentemente y la incapacidad de la oposici\u00f3n para imponerse a un r\u00e9gimen empe\u00f1ado en resistir a toda costa. Mientras tanto, son muchos los que prefieren autosugestionarse con la idea de que Bachar el Asad tiene sus d\u00edas contados a la espera de un colapso interno que no llega.<\/p>\n

Ante la falta de opciones m\u00e1s claras, y al margen de las necesidades y expectativas de la poblaci\u00f3n siria levantada contra el dictador, en algunos c\u00edrculos diplom\u00e1ticos (incluyendo a Washington) comienza a abrirse paso la idea de que la salida del t\u00fanel pasa por la aplicaci\u00f3n del modelo yemen\u00ed. De partida, ese planteamiento presupone que el ejemplo de Yemen es exitoso y que existen similitudes suficientes entre ambos pa\u00edses que hacen factible el ensayo. Pero la realidad nos muestra de inmediato que ninguna de las dos hip\u00f3tesis se sostiene. Para empezar, Yemen est\u00e1 hoy m\u00e1s cerca de convertirse en un Estado fallido que en uno democr\u00e1tico. Bajo el liderazgo formal de Mansour Hadi, estrecho colaborador del depuesto Ali Abdal\u00e1 Saleh, el pa\u00eds no ha logrado mejorar su seguridad con focos de conflicto alimentados por los secesionistas del Sur, los rebeldes hut\u00eds del Norte y la franquicia local de Al Qaeda. Tampoco el nuevo r\u00e9gimen ha conseguido mejorar el bienestar de sus 24 millones de habitantes. \u00bfAceptar\u00e1n los opositores a El Asad la designaci\u00f3n de un hombre del r\u00e9gimen para sucederle transitoriamente \u2014el general Manaf Tlass, por ejemplo\u2014 mientras se le garantiza la inmunidad absoluta?<\/p>\n

Tras la fachada de Hadi, Saleh conserva una enorme influencia en la escena pol\u00edtica y econ\u00f3mica yemen\u00ed. No solo dispone de un despacho en la capital y retiene la presidencia del principal partido gubernamental, el Consejo General Popular, sino que los jefes de las m\u00e1s importantes instancias de poder nacional siguen hoy en manos de sus familiares. \u00bfEs imaginable o deseable lo mismo para El Asad? Es decir, que \u00bfal igual que el hijo de Saleh ostenta la jefatura de la Guardia Republicana en San\u00e1, el belicista Maher el Asad haga lo mismo en Siria?<\/p>\n

En el caso yemen\u00ed se pudo firmar el acuerdo perge\u00f1ado por Arabia Saud\u00ed, con aprobaci\u00f3n estadounidense, porque hab\u00eda un claro representante del bando opositor, el general Ali Mohsen. Pero ese no es el caso en el seno de una oposici\u00f3n siria que se caracteriza todav\u00eda hoy por la fragmentaci\u00f3n y el creciente peso de unos Hermanos Musulmanes que no acaban de contar con la confianza internacional. Si a eso se suma el hecho de que el resto de las minor\u00edas del pa\u00eds a\u00fan no ha tomado abiertamente partido contra un r\u00e9gimen que ven como un mal menor frente a la posible dominaci\u00f3n sun\u00ed, podemos entender que no resultar\u00e1 nada f\u00e1cil conjugar los diversos intereses de tantos actores (no solo dos, como las confederaciones tribales Hashid y Bakil que dominan la vida yemen\u00ed).<\/p>\n

En Yemen se suceden hoy las manifestaciones, protagonizadas por una juventud que sigue oponi\u00e9ndose al acuerdo alcanzado en noviembre pasado; as\u00ed como los episodios violentos entre aspirantes al poder, como el vivido este mismo mes tras el intento fallido de Hadi de defenestrar a los principales mandos militares afines a Saleh. Las reglas del juego pol\u00edtico discriminan en ambos pa\u00edses a los d\u00e9biles sectores prodemocr\u00e1ticos y es f\u00e1cil suponer que en Siria tambi\u00e9n estos quedar\u00edan excluidos de un posible di\u00e1logo nacional, am\u00e9n de que ellos mismos pudieran decidir no sumarse a una farsa que imaginar\u00edan fiel a los m\u00e1s rancios postulados lampedusianos.<\/p>\n

Insistir en la idea de la r\u00e9plica yemen\u00ed para Siria solo se explica en clave de la m\u00e1s cruda realpolitik. Quienes la defienden no est\u00e1n pensando en promover el surgimiento de un Estado de derecho que atienda al bienestar y seguridad de la ciudadan\u00eda. Por el contrario, en cumplimiento de los dictados de un proceso de securitizaci\u00f3n de las relaciones internacionales que nos retrotrae a la guerra fr\u00eda, lo que alienta su empe\u00f1o es lograr la estabilidad, tambi\u00e9n a toda costa, para poder contar con un interlocutor m\u00e1s presentable, que asegure el control de los arsenales qu\u00edmicos y biol\u00f3gicos y evitar un efecto domin\u00f3 que exporte violencia e inseguridad a la regi\u00f3n (con Israel como principal interesado).<\/p>\n

Si este enfoque termina por aplicarse, la democracia, los derechos humanos y tantas otras demandas tendr\u00e1n que quedar, como en Yemen, aparcadas sine die<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/a><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Para El Pa\u00eds) Yemen est\u00e1 m\u00e1s cerca de un Estado fallido que de uno democr\u00e1tico. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":194,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[182,140],"tags":[],"iecah_area":[],"iecah_language":[],"class_list":["post-6317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualidad","category-articulos"],"yoast_head":"\nEl modelo yemen\u00ed no sirve en Siria - IECAH<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/el-modelo-yemeni-no-sirve-en-siria-sp-195038215\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El modelo yemen\u00ed no sirve en Siria - IECAH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Para El Pa\u00eds) Yemen est\u00e1 m\u00e1s cerca de un Estado fallido que de uno democr\u00e1tico. …\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/el-modelo-yemeni-no-sirve-en-siria-sp-195038215\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IECAH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-08-27T23:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-07-30T11:14:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jes\u00fas A. N\u00fa\u00f1ez Villaverde\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/\",\"name\":\"IECAH\",\"description\":\"investigar. formar. incidir.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required 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