{"id":6853,"date":"2013-08-27T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-08-27T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/?p=6853"},"modified":"2021-08-03T14:43:27","modified_gmt":"2021-08-03T14:43:27","slug":"las-lecciones-de-libia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/las-lecciones-de-libia\/","title":{"rendered":"Las lecciones de Libia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-2389\" width=\"120\" height=\"80\" src=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/obama.jpg\" alt=\"obama\" style=\"float: left;\" class=\"caption\" \/>Con la parafernalia habitual todo apunta sin remedio a un inminente ataque selectivo contra Siria, con Washington&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" alignleft size-full wp-image-2389\" style=\"float: left;\" width=\"180\" height=\"120\" src=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/obama.jpg\" class=\"caption\" alt=\"obama\" \/>Con la parafernalia habitual todo apunta sin remedio a <a href=\"http:\/\/internacional.elpais.com\/internacional\/2013\/08\/27\/actualidad\/1377595378_634066.html\">un inminente ataque selectivo contra Siria<\/a>, con Washington liderando una nueva \u00abcoalici\u00f3n de voluntad\u00bb (que no debe confundirse con multilateralismo). Aunque cada caso es distinto y m\u00faltiples ejemplos muestran la capacidad humana para tropezar incesantemente en la misma piedra, interesa tomar en consideraci\u00f3n la experiencia acumulada para determinar qu\u00e9 ha llevado hasta aqu\u00ed y qu\u00e9 cabe esperar de inmediato.<\/p>\n<p>Ahora no se contempla una intervenci\u00f3n en fuerza (Afganist\u00e1n e Irak) y ni siquiera el derribo total del r\u00e9gimen (Libia). En realidad, Obama ha llegado a este punto tras aprender de lo ocurrido precisamente en Libia y forzado por un gui\u00f3n que \u00e9l mismo crey\u00f3 que le libraba de volver a empantanarse militarmente en la regi\u00f3n. De Libia ha sacado la conclusi\u00f3n de que es mejor hacerse acompa\u00f1ar por socios isl\u00e1micos (Arabia Saud\u00ed, Jordania, Catar y Turqu\u00eda) para evitar lecturas de confrontaci\u00f3n civilizacional. Tambi\u00e9n sabe que, si hay voluntad pol\u00edtica, la existencia de un aval onusiano es apenas una formalidad sin consecuencias (en Irak su inexistencia no evit\u00f3 el aventurerismo occidental y en Libia se forzaron m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de lo admisible las dos resoluciones aprobadas, armando a los rebeldes, atacando objetivos fuera del mandato y desplegando unidades de operaciones especiales). Y, sobre todo, entiende que el problema no es tanto derribar a un dictador (sea Sadam Husein o Muamar el Gadafi) como encontrar una alternativa fiable. Por \u00faltimo, es consciente de que armar a los llamados rebeldes puede derivar (ah\u00ed est\u00e1n Mal\u00ed y N\u00edger, pero tambi\u00e9n T\u00fanez) en un desbarajuste de muy dif\u00edcil gesti\u00f3n cuando el objetivo principal es mucho m\u00e1s la estabilidad que la democracia.<\/p>\n<p>Por otro lado, creyendo que as\u00ed satisfac\u00eda a quienes le demandaban una mayor implicaci\u00f3n militar, Obama hizo saber que el uso de armas qu\u00edmicas era una l\u00ednea roja que tendr\u00eda serias consecuencias. Colocando tan alto el list\u00f3n pensaba que nadie en sus cabales osar\u00eda traspasarlo y as\u00ed, parapetado tras ese argumento, pod\u00eda evitar el despliegue masivo de sus tropas, mientras procuraba atraer a la mesa de negociaciones a los rebeldes m\u00e1s flexibles (sin armarlos en exceso) y a los representantes de un r\u00e9gimen que segu\u00eda viendo como un mal menor (a fin de cuentas, no cuestiona ning\u00fan inter\u00e9s vital de Washington y es preferible a los Al Nusra y compa\u00f1ia). Pero ahora, cuando ya John Kerry ha acusado p\u00fablicamente al r\u00e9gimen del ataque qu\u00edmico, Obama est\u00e1 empujado a hacer algo para no perder la credibilidad securitaria de su pa\u00eds (aunque solo sea porque otros, como Pyongyang o Teher\u00e1n, podr\u00edan animarse a traspasar tambi\u00e9n otras supuestas l\u00edneas rojas).<\/p>\n<p>Visto as\u00ed, es previsible que Obama se esfuerce por limitar el alcance del golpe contra los arsenales qu\u00edmicos y algunas instalaciones de mando y control. Aunque sabe que ser\u00e1 criticado por muchos de los que hasta ahora le exig\u00edan hacer algo, prefiere asumir el coste de saltarse la legalidad internacional a armar mucho m\u00e1s a unos rebeldes de los que (con raz\u00f3n) desconf\u00eda. En lo que conf\u00eda (y eso es poco menos que pedir la Luna) es en que tanto los previsibles misiles como los ataques a\u00e9reos sean \u00ablimpios\u00bb, sin bajas propias y sin \u00abda\u00f1os colaterales\u00bb. Tambi\u00e9n debe so\u00f1ar con que El Asad y sus aliados capten el mensaje \u2014entendiendo que no hay pretensi\u00f3n de defenestrarlo, sino de llevarlo a Ginebra 2 para encontrar una soluci\u00f3n negociada que no deje a Siria fragmentada y en manos yihadistas\u2014 y, ya puestos, que no ejecuten represalias contra quienes ahora van a atacarlo y que no recurra a nuevos ataques qu\u00edmicos antes de que su arsenal sea destruido. Por pedir, que no quede.<\/p>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Con la parafernalia habitual todo apunta sin remedio a un inminente ataque selectivo contra Siria, &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":194,"featured_media":2389,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[182,140],"tags":[],"iecah_area":[],"iecah_language":[],"class_list":["post-6853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","category-articulos"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Las lecciones de Libia - IECAH<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/las-lecciones-de-libia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Las lecciones de Libia - IECAH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Con la parafernalia habitual todo apunta sin remedio a un inminente ataque selectivo contra Siria, &hellip;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/las-lecciones-de-libia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IECAH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-08-27T23:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-08-03T14:43:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/obama.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"170\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"121\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jes\u00fas A. 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