{"id":8568,"date":"2017-11-07T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-11-07T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/?p=8568"},"modified":"2021-07-20T13:16:45","modified_gmt":"2021-07-20T13:16:45","slug":"siria-guerra-ganada-guerra-inacabada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/siria-guerra-ganada-guerra-inacabada\/","title":{"rendered":"Siria: guerra ganada, guerra inacabada"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"1508169524796\"Para El Periódico<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/span>La pérdida de Raqa …<\/span>
<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"1508169524796\"<\/p>\n

Para El Periódico<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

La<\/span> pérdida<\/span><\/strong> de<\/span> Raqa <\/span><\/strong>y <\/span>Deir el Zor<\/span><\/strong> confirma simultáneamente que el <\/span>pseudocalifato <\/span><\/strong>de<\/span> Daesh<\/span><\/strong> ha quedado <\/span>desmantelado <\/span><\/strong>y que<\/span> Al Asad ha ganado<\/span><\/strong> la <\/span>guerra<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Lejos de colapsar, el <\/span>régimen genocida sirio <\/span><\/strong>sabe que el tiempo ya corre a su favor. No solo ha logrado dar la vuelta a la situación que sufría hasta el verano de 2015, sino que ya controla no menos del 60% del territorio, donde reside más del 80% de la población. Para ello ha resultado vital tanto la <\/span>férrea ayuda<\/span><\/strong> de<\/span> Teherán<\/span><\/strong>,<\/span> Hezbolá <\/span><\/strong>y <\/span>Moscú<\/span><\/strong>, como la<\/span> incapacidad <\/span><\/strong>de los <\/span>opositores<\/span><\/strong> y <\/span>rebeldes<\/span><\/strong> para acordar una plataforma unitaria. Pero también cuenta, y mucho, la <\/span>pasividad<\/span><\/strong> mostrada ante la violencia contra los civiles por parte de unos <\/span>países occidentales <\/span><\/strong>que han acabado por ver al dictador como un mal menor.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

En todo caso, la guerra está lejos de haber llegado a su fin. Por una parte, como ya ocurrió anteriormente con Al Qaeda y los talibán en Afganistán, es previsible que <\/span>Daesh<\/span><\/strong> regrese a su versión más netamente insurgente, renunciando a volver a controlar un territorio para pasar a realizar ataques puntuales contra sus variados enemigos, aprovechando que todavía puede moverse con cierta libertad por una <\/span>zona rural<\/span><\/strong> y <\/span>desértica<\/span><\/strong> de unos 4.000 kilómetros cuadrados a caballo entre Siria e Irak, así como en parte de la <\/span>provincia<\/span><\/strong> de <\/span>Idlib<\/span><\/strong>. Son muchas las pruebas que demuestran que no hay solución militar a la amenaza terrorista y si a eso se une la persistencia de agravios y codicia de muchos actores locales, solo cabe prever que los yihadistas volverán a aprovechar esas fracturas para ganar aliados circunstanciales contra Damasco.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Sustrato yihadista en ebullición<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Al margen de lo que la treintena de grupos asociados con Daesh siga haciendo en sus propios territorios, el <\/span>sustrato yihadista <\/span><\/strong>en <\/span>Siria<\/span><\/strong> sigue en <\/span>ebullición<\/span><\/strong>, por lo que el posible hueco que pueda dejar Daesh inmediatamente será cubierto por otros, como ya cabe deducir de la entrada en escena de <\/span>Jama’at Ansar al Furqan in Bilad al Sham<\/span><\/strong>, supuestamente<\/span> liderado<\/span><\/strong> por <\/span>Hamza bin Laden (hijo de Osama)<\/span><\/strong>, y que pretende recuperar el protagonismo de Al Qaeda acogiendo a los desencantados de Jabat al Nusra, el propio Daesh y cualquier otro.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A eso se suman las aspiraciones de los kurdos sirios, crecidos tanto militar como políticamente como consecuencia del apoyo estadounidense a quienes simplemente ha utilizado como carne de cañón local en su intento de eliminar a <\/span>Daesh<\/span><\/strong>. Repitiendo una pauta que le lleva a potenciar a actores locales cuando no desea verse implicado en primera línea de combate, <\/span>Washington<\/span><\/strong> (y otras capitales de la zona) se han dedicado a jugar con un fuego que no solo acaba frecuentemente quemándolos sino que termina por alimentar nuevos conflictos (como el independentismo kurdo y el que deriva del regreso a casa de los ‘foreign fighters’).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Y por si todo esto fuera poco, en el plano regional aún queda por resolver el encaje de un régimen indeseado tanto por<\/span> Turquía<\/span><\/strong> como por quienes pretenden castigar a<\/span> Irán<\/span><\/strong> en su nombre. Y en el interior queda una<\/span> ardua tarea <\/span><\/strong>de <\/span>reconstrucción <\/span><\/strong>y <\/span>reconciliación<\/span><\/strong>. Casi nada.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Para El Periódico La pérdida de Raqa …  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":194,"featured_media":8567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[182,140],"tags":[],"iecah_area":[],"iecah_language":[],"class_list":["post-8568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","category-articulos"],"yoast_head":"\nSiria: guerra ganada, guerra inacabada - IECAH<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/siria-guerra-ganada-guerra-inacabada\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Siria: guerra ganada, guerra inacabada - IECAH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Para El Periódico La pérdida de Raqa …  \" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/siria-guerra-ganada-guerra-inacabada\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IECAH\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-11-07T08:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-07-20T13:16:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/1508169524796.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"674\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jes\u00fas A. 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