{"id":8798,"date":"2018-10-09T06:52:28","date_gmt":"2018-10-09T06:52:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/?p=8798"},"modified":"2021-07-14T12:16:48","modified_gmt":"2021-07-14T12:16:48","slug":"donde-estan-las-lineas-rojas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ul-standards.org\/iecah\/donde-estan-las-lineas-rojas\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfD\u00f3nde est\u00e1n las l\u00edneas rojas?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"caption\" style=\"margin: 2px; float: left;\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.realinstitutoelcano.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/780976-UNPhotos-CiaPak-768x512.jpg\" alt=\"portada1\" width=\"261\" height=\"175\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Para el <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.realinstitutoelcano.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Blog Elcano<\/a>. <br \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">En los sucesivos intentos por limitar la <strong>voluntad de poder<\/strong>, tanto individual como colectiva, hemos ido desarrollando un entramado de reglas y convenciones&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"caption\" style=\"margin: 5px; float: left;\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.realinstitutoelcano.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/780976-UNPhotos-CiaPak-768x512.jpg\" alt=\"portada1\" width=\"608\" height=\"445\" \/><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><strong><strong>Para el <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.realinstitutoelcano.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Blog Elcano<\/a>. <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">En los sucesivos intentos por limitar la <strong>voluntad de poder<\/strong>, tanto individual como colectiva, hemos ido desarrollando un entramado de reglas y convenciones que, tomando como referencia la Paz de Westfalia (1648), pretende alejarnos de la ley de la jungla para crear un sistema internacional basado en la idea de que la soberan\u00eda nacional sea, al menos formalmente, igual para todos y de que nadie tenga derecho a inmiscuirse en los asuntos internos. Igualmente, hemos desarrollado, con la ONU como hito principal, mecanismos de vigilancia y sanci\u00f3n contra quienes se salten las reglas b\u00e1sicas del sistema (resumidas en que el uso de la fuerza solo es admisible como leg\u00edtima defensa o con el aval de una resoluci\u00f3n del Consejo de Seguridad).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pero, aun as\u00ed, es obvio que la voluntad de poder sigue tentando a muchos a sobrepasar los l\u00edmites marcados y que, por otra parte, los instrumentos creados no son totalmente eficaces (y, desgraciadamente, otros m\u00e1s recientes, como el <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realinstitutoelcano.org\/wps\/portal\/rielcano_es\/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=\/elcano\/elcano_es\/zonas_es\/dt2-2016-menendezdelvalle-responsabilidad-de-proteger-onu-en-accion\">principio de responsabilidad de proteger<\/a>, no parecen correr mejor suerte). En realidad, salvo para quienes sue\u00f1en\/deliren con un control absoluto de todo comportamiento humano, cabe asumir que nunca habr\u00e1 un sistema perfecto, capaz en el mejor de los casos de disuadir a los m\u00e1s osados o, al menos, de castigarlos si rompen el consenso alcanzado entre todos. Eso plantea el problema de definir unas <strong>l\u00edneas rojas<\/strong> que nadie deber\u00eda poder cruzar sin consecuencias, sabiendo que en muchas ocasiones no sirven como referencia las que formalmente han sido convenidas y fijadas en acuerdos o en tratados.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Una de las elucubraciones m\u00e1s inquietantes de la Guerra Fr\u00eda, vista desde la Europa Occidental, era si Washington estar\u00eda dispuesto a responder a una agresi\u00f3n sovi\u00e9tica contra un aliado europeo de la OTAN, sabiendo que eso pod\u00eda desencadenar una escalada nuclear que pusiese en peligro a su propia poblaci\u00f3n. \u00bfSe la jugar\u00eda Estados Unidos por Roma o Par\u00eds? Era muy dif\u00edcil creer que, en el marco de la estrategia de respuesta masiva aliada (dada la superioridad convencional de Mosc\u00fa en el teatro europeo, un ataque sovi\u00e9tico ser\u00eda respondido con armas nucleares). Afortunadamente nunca ha habido que poner a prueba el v\u00ednculo trasatl\u00e1ntico hasta ese punto; pero la duda sigue estando hoy ah\u00ed, aunque esa estrategia haya ido evolucionando hacia la <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.realinstitutoelcano.org\/otan-de-360-grados-pero-sin-articulo-5\/\">respuesta flexible<\/a> y el <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realinstitutoelcano.org\/wps\/portal\/rielcano_es\/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=\/elcano\/elcano_es\/zonas_es\/ari2-2012\">escudo de misiles<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">En un plano que puede parecer, falsamente, m\u00e1s liviano confluyen estos d\u00edas comportamientos que van desde la muy posible <a href=\"https:\/\/elpais.com\/internacional\/2018\/10\/07\/actualidad\/1538910975_835262.html\">eliminaci\u00f3n de un periodista cr\u00edtico con el r\u00e9gimen saud\u00ed<\/a> tras entrar el pasado 2 de octubre en el consulado de ese pa\u00eds en Estambul, hasta la incre\u00edble <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/mundo\/noticias-internacional-45776898\">desaparici\u00f3n del presidente de la Interpol<\/a> desde su llegada a China el pasado 29 de septiembre. Son solo dos muestras recientes de muchos otros comportamientos que quiebran a diario las normas internacionales, pero que quedan sin sanci\u00f3n, entre otros motivos, porque considerados de manera aislada nunca parecen suficientemente graves como para activar una respuesta contundente.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Vivimos malos tiempos cuando el hegem\u00f3n mundial <a href=\"https:\/\/especiales.realinstitutoelcano.org\/eeuu\/\">se ufana de su unilateralismo<\/a> y avala comportamientos de reconocidos gobernantes autoritarios. Y lo mismo cabe decir de una Rusia que se atreve a anexionar Crimea, emplear a los \u201chombrecillos de verde\u201d en Ucrania, deshacerse de cr\u00edticos y esp\u00edas rebeldes o llevar a cabo ciberataques cada vez m\u00e1s desestabilizadores. Pero tambi\u00e9n es preciso mirar hacia una Uni\u00f3n Europea que asiste pasivamente a los desplantes sin freno de Donald Trump o ve como en su seno se registra un notorio ascenso de la xenofobia y el racismo, alentado por jefes de gobiernos que aprovechan la falta de voluntad pol\u00edtica en Bruselas para frenarlos. China, por su parte, apenas oculta la violaci\u00f3n de los derechos humanos de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/es\/latest\/news\/2018\/09\/china-xinjiang-families-of-up-to-one-million-detained-demand-answers\/\">una minor\u00eda como la uigur<\/a> o la eliminaci\u00f3n de disidentes por la v\u00eda r\u00e1pida.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de lo que apuntan pel\u00edculas como <em>Minority report<\/em>, es un hecho que nuestra <strong>capacidad predictiva<\/strong> es muy limitada. Nadie puede predeterminar que har\u00e1 otro en el futuro, ni valorar con precisi\u00f3n las consecuencias futuras de un casi siempre aparentemente peque\u00f1o gesto. Ah\u00ed est\u00e1, por si hiciera falta alg\u00fan ejemplo de dimensiones planetarias, el ascenso de Adolf Hitler al poder y la generalizada pol\u00edtica de apaciguamiento que desemboc\u00f3 en un horror dif\u00edcilmente igualado en la historia. Y ahora \u2013cuando los Orb\u00e1n, Putin, Trump, Duterte, Erdo\u011fan, Kim Jong-un, <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.realinstitutoelcano.org\/golpe-de-efecto-fallido-de-netanyahu-en-la-onu\/\">Netanyahu<\/a> y quiz\u00e1s muy pronto Bolsonaro se sienten iluminados y jaleados\u2013 volvemos a estar inquietos, mientras comprobamos c\u00f3mo se deterioran los mecanismos de vigilancia y sanci\u00f3n (sin que se plantee una reforma sustancial de la ONU) y aumenta el gusto por el \u201chombre fuerte\u201d, el \u201csalvador\u201d o el \u201cpadre de la patria\u201d que, tomando el atajo que le parezca m\u00e1s adecuado, est\u00e1 dispuesto a eliminar a sus adversarios, sabiendo que nadie est\u00e1 dispuesto a detenerlo a tiempo.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Y as\u00ed, poco a poco, se va elevando el list\u00f3n de los abusos y desprecios, mientras los violadores de las normas se sienten a\u00fan m\u00e1s crecidos, convencidos de que pueden seguir dando pasos sin temor a represalia 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